By Josie Simpson

For the first time in program history, No. 13 Louisville has reached the ACC tournament final, setting up a high-stakes showdown with the No. 1 Duke Blue Devils.

This sets up a rematch after the two teams played a seesaw of a game on Dec. 8. After leading by 14, Louisville fell to Duke 65-76.

Who’s on first?

Both teams will be without key players, which could heavily impact the game’s outcome.

Louisville will be missing sharpshooter Reyne Smith, who has been sidelined for the entirety of the ACC tournament.

Duke also suffered a major loss with Cooper Flagg unavailable after suffering an ankle injury in the quarterfinals against Georgia Tech. Duke’s defensive anchor Maliq Brown also remains out.

The injury to Brown limits Duke’s defensive prowess some, but that’s about it. He hasn’t offered much in terms of offense all season.

The biggest loss is obviously the ACC Player of the Year. Flagg leads Duke in points, assists, rebounds, steals and blocks per game. No player in ACC history has led his team in all five categories for an entire season, that’s what Flagg has done.

While Flagg provided the bulk of Duke’s offense, recording a usage rate of 30.2%, the biggest wake he leaves is on the defensive end.

Both North Carolina and Georgia Tech both were able to score with more ease, with UNC going on a huge run to cut the lead from 24 to one.

Flagg and Brown are also both 6-foot-9, so what is the tallest team in the country with them becomes a team with only two players taller than 6-foot-7. This provides a much more level playing field for the Cards, who aren’t small by any means but don’t have crazy height to combat the Blue Devils.

One loss that is slightly under the radar is that of former Duke assistant coach Jai Lucas.

Lucas took the head job at Miami, and Jon Scheyer dismissed him to let him focus on his new program. Lucas was widely seen as the orchestrator of the Blue Devils defense, so the absence of his x’s and o’s might prove to be too much.

Picking up the slack

Back in December, Flagg has to sit the bench in the second half after picking up a fourth foul.

This is actually when Louisville fell apart. Louisville went from being up five to being down 11 in just under five minutes. During this time Kon Knueppel became the only facilitator of the Duke offense, working like a maestro out of the pick and roll nearly every time down the court.

He ended the game against Louisville with 12 points and five assists.

Against Georgia Tech Knueppel scored 28 points and had eight assists, with most of his production coming in the second half. As the top of the scouting report against UNC, he had a good but less flashy 17 points and three assists.

While Knueppel can take over a game offensively, he leaves a lot to be desired on defense. He’s susceptible to getting blown by when taking on quicker guards, and that describes Chucky Hepburn to a tee.

Where Knueppel fails Duke on defense, Khaman Malauch makes up for it and then some. At a staggering 7-foot-2, the star freshman is an anchor down low. While he doesn’t actually have the best timing on his blocks, only ranking 98th in block rate, his height and length alters a number of shots and decisions that stats can’t show.

Malauch is also automatic in the paint. He has the fourth highest offensive efficiency rating in the nation because he almost exclusively dunks the ball. He doesn’t have too many post moves, but denying him looks might be the best approach.

What has been Duke’s Achilles heel at the end of the season, even though it hasn’t cost them any games, is sloppy turnovers leading to easy fast break scores. UNC took advantage of this is big ways in their last two matchups, and Duke looked completely inept during these two runs.

If the Cards can force turnovers in droves, which they’ve done to teams this season, they have a pretty good chance at pulling off the upset.

The win would give Louisville its first ever ACC championship and their first conference tournament championship since 2014.

Tip-off is set for 8:30 p.m. Saturday.

Photo Courtesy // Mallory Peak, Louisville Athletics