By Derek DeBurger
Louisville will face off against the Washington Huskies in the Sun Bowl.
Tuesday’s game marks Louisville’s return to El Paso 67 years after making their first ever bowl appearance in the Sun Bowl.
All finesse
Bowl games have become very difficult to predict in recent years, with it becoming routine for players to skip bowls due to NFL prep or entering the transfer portal. Trying to track who has opted out is a nearly impossible task, but Matt McGavic has done exactly that.
All of this to say Washington is not losing much to opt-outs, especially on offense.
The Huskies have an average offense that is severely hampered by their poor offensive line. They average a modest 383.7 yards per game and a bad 22.5 points a game.
The UW O-line gave up 34 sacks in 12 games, almost a three sack average. The run game struggles, too, with only 131.3 rushing yards a game.
Louisville is missing some key contributors on defense, but Washington should provide several opportunities for rushers to get into the backfield.
Washington is a team that prefers to pass over running, but most of their attempts through the air are dink-and-dunk plays with lots of gimmicky concepts. This quick passing game helps negate some of the O-line issues, but quarterback Will Rogers has thrown seven interceptions in 11 games played. Specifically, Rogers has thrown all of his interceptions in the last six games of the season for the Huskies.
The Huskies’ biggest offensive weapon is Jonah Coleman, who has somehow managed over 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns rushing. Coleman is also the workhorse of the running back room, getting almost twice as many touches as all other backs combined.
Coleman is also the Huskies’ only real receiving threat out of the backfield, so a linebacking corp that was burnt most of the season will at least be tipped off when they need to keep an eye on what the running back will do.
Undiagnosable?
Washington is a curious case on the defensive end.
They have a very stout passing defense, giving up 166.8 yards through the air a game which is the fifth best mark nationally. For a team that will be sending out a backup quarterback to start, this is a bit of a concern.
Harrison Bailey will most likely receive the start, but there is no guarantee. Brady Allen and Deuce Adams could just as likely see the field.
Washington’s rushing defense is ok, giving up 158.1 yards a game, but in almost all of their loses they give up a much larger amount.
Part of the reason for the big discrepancy is that Washington has a strong secondary and a weak front seven. The Huskies defense has only 20 sacks to 49 pass breakups, and a large number of those sacks are coverage sacks as opposed to a rusher just beating their man.
Two of the biggest names in the passing game are Carson Bruener and Thaddeus Dixon. Bruener is the team’s leader in both tackles and interceptions with 93 and three, respectively. Dixon is a shutdown corner with 10 PBUs and an interception.
One thing that could potentially effect Washington’s defense is that their defensive coordinator, Steve Belichick, has already agreed to accept the same position at North Carolina. Bowl games have become about which team is more motivated, and it’s hard to say whether the impending departure of their DC will light a fire under the defense or deflate them.
This game is very hard to predict, but there’s no reason Louisville can’t win.
The Cards will likely take a similar approach to the game plan that gave them a victory over Clemson earlier this season: run the ball and only pass when needed.
Hopefully the Cards can end the season on a high note and reach nine wins on the season.
Photo by Vinny Porco