By Harry Barsan
No. 14 Louisville will face off against the California Golden Bears in the penultimate game of the season.
This will be their first game against one another since 2010, where Cal bested Louisville in the first round of the NCAA tournament.
Throwing up some prayers
On paper, Cal looks like one of the worst offenses in Division-1.
They rank 265th in three-point percentage, 296th on two-point percentage and 300th in effective field goal percentage. They don’t run an especially quick pace of play either, so it seems to be a mystery how they can put up 74.5 per game.
The way they reach these marks are by free throw shooting and rebounding.
While they are only making around three of every four attempts, they are top 25 in both attempts and makes. Free throws account for 23% of the team’s total production, the 22nd highest rate in D-1.
Cal is also top 25 in offensive boards with 11.1 per game, giving them copious opportunities to extend possessions and make shots.
Andrej Stojakovic, son of former NBA player Pje Stojakovic, leads all Bears with 17.2 PPG, with a team-leading 4.8 free throws.
He is a balanced scorer, with a third of his points coming from behind the arc and the rest inside. He may not excel at any one thing, but he does everything well.
Conversely, Jeremiah Wilkinson and Jovan Blacksher Jr. when combined chuck up over half of their shots from deep at an unflattering rate of around 32.7%. They average 14.8 and 10.2 PPG, respectively.
While not the greatest offensive threat on the team with just 7.9 points per game, Mady Sissoko ranks seventh in the ACC with 7.8 boards a game and the fourth highest in offensive boards with 84.
The key to slowing down Cal is simple: crash the glass.
Louisville has lost a step in recent games when it comes to hauling in rebounds, so a return to form would not only help shut down the Bears’ offense but give them a big boost going into post-season play.
Liberatingly bad
If a sloppy and inefficient offense grinds your gears, Cal’s defense will set your soul free.
The Golden Bears allowing an average of 75.4 PPG is the fourth worst in the ACC, granting them a -0.9 average margin of victory.
Opponents make 46.6% of their shots, an abysmal and really unforgiving rate if you land on the short end of that tick. Cal is 1-12 in matches where opponents shot at that clip or better.
The three-ball is an enigmatic problem for the Cal defense. While opponents feast on a 37.6% three-point rate, Cal gives up just under 19 per game. Any team that likes to shoot a lot of them at even a sub-average rate should have a really great time.
If Louisville can force open looks from deep, then it’ll be a long flight back to the pacific time zone for the Golden Bears.
A win would keep Louisville on pace for a potential share of the ACC regular title and top overall seed in the ACC tournament.
Tip-off is this Wednesday at 9 p.m. in the KFC Yum! Center.
Photo Courtesy // Mallory Peak, Louisville Athletics