By Derek DeBurger and Jo Simpson
The Louisville Cardinals will face the Virginia Cavaliers in a critical matchup as the Cards look to bounce back from their hard-fought loss against Virginia Tech.
One-woman show
Virginia’s offense completely revolves around Kayden Johnson, a dynamic guard averaging 18.3 points and 4.9 assists per game.
Johnson’s efficiency is fantastic, shooting 46.3% from the field and 40.9% from beyond the arc. She also contributes on the defensive end with 1.9 steals per game.
Johnson is the top, middle and bottom of the scouting report, and slowing her down will be the top priority. Johnson is a very small guard at 5-foot-7, but she is athletic with tight handles and quick shot. Tajianna Roberts would be a good defender with her length and Ja’Leah Williams has the athleticism to keep up with Johnson, but both guards leave something to be desired.
Supporting Johnson is forward Laniyah Lattimore, who dominates the boards, averaging 9.2 rebounds alongside her 13.3 points per game. Johnson and Lattimore can play a great two-man game covering the inside and perimeter, but Lattimore is a respectable shooter from deep, as well, shooting 30.8% from three-point range.
Olivia McGhee and Breona Hurd provide secondary scoring at 9.6 and 9.5 points per game, respectively, while Yvonne Vaughn is a second option to initiate offense with 4.2 assists per game.
The biggest problem with Virginia’s offense is how loose they are with the ball. The Cavs have four players averaging two-plus turnovers a game, and three more that average 1.7-plus a game.
Louisville is an aggressive and relentless defense, and they routinely forces turnovers in droves. Disrupting the Virginia offense and preventing them from getting into a rhythm offensively will slow down an offense that has tendency to go cold.
Paper Cavs?
Virginia has a pretty solid defense, only giving up 64.9 points a game on 38.2% from the field and 27.1% from three. They’re top-10 nationally in blocks per game at 5.6 and they also rack up a respectable 8.4 steals a game. This Cavs defense is tough.
To make matters worse, UVA is really good at defending without fouling, averaging 15.4 fouls a game.
The cherry on top is how effectively this Cavs team cleans up the glass, grabbing 40.7 boards a game. The one silver lining is how many rebounds they give up each game, 38.1, which leaves them with a razor thin rebounding margin.
Louisville is a good rebounding team that seems to step things up when they’re going against the most physical of teams. If the Cards hold their own on the glass, they can prevent the Cavs from extending possessions and shortening Louisville possessions.
If all the gaudy numbers on defense look scary, that’s because they are. The one factor that could be skewing the data is how abhorrently weak Virginia’s non-conference schedule was. Their non-conference opponents have a combined record of 105-126, with their record against teams with a non-losing record being 2-4.
Against high-major opponents, UVA has struggled on both ends of the floor. Louisville has better talent, but they’re had a tendency to play down to their opponent this season.
With control of the glass, the Cards are likely to secure a comfortable victory and improve to 14-6 on the year and 7-2 in conference.
Tip-off is set for 2 p.m. Sunday at John Paul Jones Arena.
Photo courtesy // Taris Smith, Louisville Athletics
