By Harry Barsan

Louisville will return from their weekend off to face the Wake Forest Demon Deacons at home.

Tuesday’s game will be very telling for both squads looking to separate themselves from the pack in the ACC.

Demonic defense

Wake Forest stands at 15-5 on the year, including a solid 7-2 in the conference. They have won six of their last seven, the only loss being a seven-point defeat at the hands of Duke, the top team in the country according to Kenpom.

They’ve been blown away in all of their other losses, losing by an average of 14 points to the rest of their Quadrent-1 opponents. Their only win over such an opponent being when they escaped against Michigan with a two-point victory.

In spite of a somewhat unimpressive resume, the Demon Deacons are still a formidable foe.

Wake commands the third best scoring defense in the ACC, and is coming off a solid defensive performance in which they held a potent Duke offense to a season-low 63 points.

An opponent shooting rate of just 39.0% is the second in the ACC behind Duke. They rank top-90 in both blocks and steals, averaging 4.4 and 7.7 as a team, respectively.

Under Steve Forbes, Wake is a team that prides itself on closing out on three-point shooters and forcing inside shots. This season Wake is great inside the arc, as well, only allowing teams to shoot 45.9% from two-point range.

Efton Reid is their big that locks down the paint, and Tre’Von Spillers is an even more effective blocker from the perimeter.

Louisville-transfer Ty-Laur Johnson is a menace on the outside, recording the 38th highest steal rate in the country at 4.2%.

Return of the Ty-Laur

On the flip side, Wake isn’t quite the same story on offense. They average 70 points per game, are one of the worst at scoring off of assists and have the twelfth worst three-point (27.7%) in Division-1, even worse than Louisville’s 31.7%.

Fortunately for the Deacons, they have their saving grace in the form of Hunter Sallis.

The former-Gonzaga guard is not only averaging 18 points for the second straight year, but also leading the conference and 18th nationally in minutes per game with 36.3. The lion’s share of possessions end with Sallis, leading the team in field goals attempted and made and threes attempted and made.

He’s not the best shooter, as that title likely belongs to Spillers, who uses much of his size and mobility to score in the paint and leading the team with a 55.2% from the field.

Besides simply scoring 10.4 a game, Spillers grabs nearly a fourth of the teams total boards, picking up 8.5 per game. The Deacons need Spillers’ contribution on the glass, as they routinely get out-rebounded. They rank 245th or worse in both offensive rebounding rate and offensive rebounding rate given up. This is partly because Wake almost always has three guards on the floor at any given moment.

The rebounding deficit plays right into the Cards’ hands, as Louisville’s sweet spot is on the glass, averaging 11.3 offensive rebounds per game.

Duke had such boards to thank for their win Saturday, picking up 12 offensive rebounds compared to Wake’s three.

Perhaps the biggest x-factor, and the reason for Wake’s resurgence, is the insertion of Johnson into the starting lineup. Johnson has started the past seven games for the Deacons, with their offense taking a noticeable step forward.

Johnson has a natural gift for feeling out passing lanes, and his athleticism and shot making helps him dissect defenses before they can diagnose what’s happening. Terrence Edwards Jr. is a likely candidate to attempt to guard Johnson with his length and ability to disrupt passing lanes while on a man.

But there will likely be times where Johnson is matched up with a lesser defender due to Wake’s three-guard rotations. Expect Johnson to try and put on a show at his old stomping grounds.

This is a massive game for conference standings and resume building for both teams. Louisville will likely enter the game as the decided favorites, but expect nothing short of a battle.

Louisville has what it takes to get the win, improve their record to 16-5 overall and 9-1 in conference and reach their first 10-win streak since the 2019-20 season.

Tip-off is Tuesday at 7 p.m. at the KFC Yum! Center.

Photo Courtesy // Mallory Peak, Louisville Athletics