By Harry Barsan

The Cardinals will travel to Charlottesville to take on the Virginia Cavaliers.

Louisville hasn’t had much success historically against Virginia, standing 5-24 against the Cavaliers all-time and 0-9 all-time in John Paul Jones Arena.

Slow and steady

Virginia’s iconic pack line defense wants to suffocate open drives to the paint, instead forcing contested shots outside.

It has been a nearly flawless scheme for the past 15 years under Tony Bennett, whose father was the inventor of the pack line. However, Bennett stepped down just under a month before the season started and Ron Sanchez was promoted to interim head coach.

For a Cavalier defense that’s seemingly lived in the top-10 of every statistical category for the past decade, this is a major departure.

While Virginia does rank in top-10 of scoring defense, they barely crack the top-50 in opponent true shooting percentage and rank 48th in defensive efficiency on Kenpom.

While the Cavs defense is not what it has been recently, it’s still a force to be reckoned with. Their slow pace and disciplined defense means they commit a limited amount of fouls each game.

They also have the 25th highest block percentage in the country, despite only recording five a game.

The Virginia defense is solvable, however, by good shot selection and efficiency, something Louisville has unfortunately lacked in tandem for much of the season. For a Cavs defense that wants opponents to shot from behind the arc and a Louisville offense that loves taking open threes, the Cards could be in trouble if their shots aren’t falling.

However, with careful preparation from Pat Kelsey and his squad, the Cardinals should be well prepared for what’s to come. And if the Cards are hot from deep, Saturday’s matchup could quickly turn into a rout.

Expect a big night from Reyne Smith, who has been the reliable sharp shooter from this team so far. While he shoots nearly nine threes a game and makes nearly 40% of them, I suspect he’ll take more of the team’s volume from deep with his superior accuracy.

Wins the race?

The retirement of Bennett spelled bad news for their defense, but it spelled devastating news for their offense.

The team ranks 363rd in adjusted tempo and 413th in points per game out of only 364 Division-1 teams.

They shoot quite well from three at 38.5% but shoot an abysmal 48.7% from inside the arc.

The lack of inside presence is made worse by the fact that they are horrible at getting to the line for free points. The Cavs rank 323rd in free throw attempts and 322nd in percentage of their points that come from the line.

For a thin Louisville team, this is a godsend. The Cards will be able to be aggressive on the perimeter and trust James Scott, Noah Waterman and J’Vonne Hadley to lock down the paint.

They don’t have a clear top scorer, lead by both Isaac McKneely’s and Elijah Saunders’ 12.2 point per game. Saunders is their go-to option whenever he is in the game, but McKneely leads the team in minutes by a wide margin.

Louisville cannot get too far from the lead at any point. Because of their grueling pace, a four-point deficit to the Cavs feels like a 10-point one and a 10-point deficit feels like a 20-point hole.

But if the Cardinals find even the slightest spark on Saturday, I expect the Cardinals can pick up a huge third win in this conference matchup to improve to 10-5 on the year and 3-1 in the ACC.

Photo Courtesy // Eli Dych, Louisville Athletics