By Erin Mccoy
If you’re planning to be part of the infield bustle on May 6, the most you’ll likely see of any race will be several pairs of horses’ ears whizzing by over a crowd of Derby hats. Even if you can’t cheer on your horse from the sidelines, you can add a little gallop to your Derby day by laying down some cash on your colt. And even if you don’t know how to bet, you still have a shot at winning.
Ironically, the Kentucky Derby is the one race of the year most likely to pack amateur betters into the betting booths, but is also one of the hardest races to “handicap,” or guess the winning horse.
“The Derby is such a different animal. It’s the unique race in horse racing,” said Josh Abner, communications manager at Churchill Downs. Several factors of the Derby make handicapping it difficult, beginning with its size: the Derby’s field usually has 20 horses, twice the size of the average race, and it’s also the longest race the colts will have run thus far.
Derby horses are all three-year-olds, so although their past wins are what qualify them for the Derby, these horses are still growing and may peak or fade away come Derby day.
The roar of the 150,000-strong Derby crowd can also be a determining factor. “Traffic problems are always a part of it and the crowd noise will probably bother them. It’s just a long, tough, grueling race,” said Bobby Rosenberg, who works technical support and customer service at http://www.brisnet.com, a horse racing information service.
“There are a lot of question marks,” Abner said. “John Asher, [vice president of Racing Communications at Churchill Downs], who’s been covering the Derby for 25, 30 years, he’s an expert handicapper. I think the last Derby winner he picked was Sunday Silence in 1989. Last year you saw Giacomo, who was the second-longest long-shot winner ever here at the track.”
Steve Fugitte, Churchill Downs corporate vice president of Racing Information, said since the Derby is so hard to predict, you may be just as lucky picking your horse for his silks, his looks or his name. But if you want to practice handicapping, try it on the other races of the day or of Derby week. There are XXX other races on May 6, after all.
Good handicapping is more about research than it is about luck, so amateur handicappers can’t expect to pick like the pros, but there are a few key factors to look for when placing a bet.
The Twin Spires Clubs’ “Handicapping 101” guide (http://www.twinspiresclub.com) is packed with useful tips for the newbie. The site suggests bettors make sure their horse has run recently on tracks that rival the length of the Downs’ track, and that they’ve already ridden with their Derby jockey. Betting with the favorite isn’t a bad choice if his stats prove he’s worthy of the honor.
You can buy a program that lists the statistics and history of every horse running for the day at Churchill Downs. Derby day programs will also be available at convenience stores around Louisville for about $2 each.
Check out the horses at the paddock, where they’ll be on display 20 minutes before the race. The horses with shiny coats strutting calmly may be future winners.
A horse’s jockey is also a good indicator of how he’ll do, according to “Handicapping 101”: “The better riders get to ride the better horses. Because they get the best horses to ride, the best jockeys win the most races. It’s a circle,” the site states.
You can check out horses’ past wins on the Kentucky Derby Web site (http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2006), but make sure to note when in the season their top wins came, how long the track was and who they were up against.
Some horses don’t bloom until the March or April before the Derby, Abner said. A horse that peaks too early in the season could be slowing down by the time the Derby rolls around – or he may not be able to handle the mile-and-a-quarter Derby track.
Placing your bet
So you’ve picked your horse, but how much you bet and how you bet it could make all the difference. Bettors can lay down money for the horse to win, to place (where the horse can come in second or first) or to show (where the horse can place third or better), but the easier the bet, the less return.
For the risk-taker or the hopeful money-maker, exotic bets may be an alluring choice. An exacta is picking the top two finishers in a race, and for a trifecta you pick the top three. If you wager an exacta or trifecta box, you don’t have to pick them in the right order.
The daily double is the classic exotic wager, where you pick the winner for two consecutive races. You can do this for up to six races, but the tougher the wager, the more expensive the ticket and the higher the payoff. Amateurs may find the most cash in the exacta wager, which has become the most popular bet in racing.
Rosenberg recommended beginners try out a $1 trifecta box, which costs $6. “If there’s one unexpected horse on that combination you can win up to $1,000,” he said.
All these options can result in betting fever, but “Horseracing 101” recommends bettors be cautious of how much they’re spending. A good tactic is to manage your money by percentage – if you bring $50 to the track and plan to bet on five races, only wager 20 percent of your bankroll per race, even if that wad of cash grows after a hefty payoff.
Whether you approach it as a matter of luck or a matter of skill, betting at the races can make a day in the infield 10 times as exciting. And if you win, the day after will be exciting, too: bragging rights make a great souvenir.
