By Derek DeBurger
Louisville will try to snap their 21-game road losing streak against the Miami Hurricanes.
Louisville is a talented team, but Miami is very talented this season. Last season, when the talent disparity was higher, Louisville played one of their best and closest games of the year.
Under Jim Larrañaga, the Canes try to outscore whoever they share a court with—defense is an afterthought. That is exactly how the Cards play under Kenny Payne. When Louisville can run up and down the court, that’s when they’re at their best.
Louisville has also played a couple of opponents that play a similar style to the Canes—to mixed results. When UMBC came to town the Cards came away with a one-point win, but when Kentucky flooded the KFC Yum! Center Louisville was out of the game after the first eight minutes.
Miami is a lot more like Kentucky than UMBC. They lost Isaiah Wong, yet retain Norchad Omier, Nijel Pack, and Wooga Poplar who are much improved. Omier is scoring at a super high rate getting 18.1 points per game on 62.3% shooting from the field, Pack is leading the Canes with 4.1 assists per game and Poplar is one of the best three-point shooters in the country at 50%.
Outside of the top three, Miami is extremely efficient offensively—according to Kenpom, the 18th-best offense in the country. I think this will be the ultimate factor in the game. When a team shoots well it doesn’t mean they have the best shooters, it means they get the best looks. Louisville is a team that gives every opponent they play wide-open shots, especially from deep. The Cards give up the highest percentage of open threes in the country, and a team that already shoots well, in Miami’s case 50.2% from the field and 42% from three, is going to take advantage of whatever you give them.
If Louisville wants to keep up with the Canes they’ll have to fight through any efforts that can deny a balanced offensive attack through Brandon Huntley-Hatfield. They’ll also need to pass the ball well and frequently.
I think there’s a good chance this game will be closer than expected, but I don’t have any confidence the Cards can notch their first conference and road win in over two years.
