By Derek DeBurger
Louisville will face the Virginia Cavaliers in a rematch from earlier this month on Saturday.
When the Cards and the Cavs played last, Louisville was just entering ACC play with a semblance of hope as Virginia was a little more firmly in the tournament field. Now, in late January, Louisville’s season has gone up in smoke and Virginia is firmly on the bubble.
Aside from the circumstances, not much has changed in the makeup of these teams. Louisville’s offense has been slightly improved since then, while Virginia’s defense might have taken a slight decline—or just weakened when matched up against tougher competition.
According to KenPom, Virginia has the ninth-ranked defensive efficiency in the country but has only the fourth-best mark in the ACC. Even when many others failed and when Louisville failed to score on just about everyone, they had success against Virginia’s defense last season. A much-improved offense combined with the comfort of a home stadium means there’s a chance that the Cards could make this competitive.
To be competitive, however, Louisville will need to play some defense. This season for the Cards, the winning formula has been to play well offensively and hope the other team misses shots. Last game between these two, Virginia did not miss shots. The Cavs shot 51.7% from the field and 38.5% from three—well above their season averages. The Cavaliers also only committed three turnovers and were comfortably on the right end of the rebounding margin, so even when they did miss shots they had ample opportunity to safely burn a reset shot clock and score off of second-chance points.
The bottom line is that Louisville will just need to be outright better than their last meeting —and better than they’ve been all season—to come away with a win on Saturday.
The Cards could punch above their weight, but I don’t expect a lightweight to become a heavyweight overnight.
File Photo // Vinny Porco, The Louisville Cardinal
