By Derek DeBurger

On Saturday, Oct. 28 at 3:30 pm the No. 18 Louisville Cardinals will face the No. 20 Duke Blue Devils at L&N Stadium.

Saturday’s game will mark the first time in program history that multiple ranked matchups will be played at home in a single season.

The Blue Devils will present a very similar situation that Louisville has faced many times this year: a fantastic defense coupled with an offense that likes to grind things out on the ground. The difference is Duke’s talent and coaching.

A defensive mind at the helm

Duke’s head coach, Mike Elko, may be the best coach Louisville will see across the sideline the entire regular season. In just 20 games as the Blue Devils’ coach, Elko has a record of 14-6 with a win in the 2022 Military Bowl. Compared to the 5-15 record in the previous 20 games before he was hired, Elko has already done an amazing job turning around that program.

Elko is also a defensive-minded coach. Duke has one of the stingiest defenses in the ACC, front and back. Up front, Duke does a great job of getting in the backfield by both disguising and sending complex blitzes that quarterbacks and offensive linemen have trouble picking up. This could very easily cause problems for Jack Plummer, as teams have begun sending pressure his way — and he has not handled it well. In the secondary, there are guys all over that shut down opposing wide receiving corps.

Duke has not given up a play of 40 yards or more this season, and those such plays are something Louisville has lived to this point in the year.

A run first offense with a few lingering questions

On offense, Duke is pretty stereotypical: run the ball to shorten the game and limit possessions. Duke does this very well, with 18 team rushing touchdowns so far in the season. That’s a lot for an entire season, let alone seven games. Duke has a great one-two-punch in the backfield with running backs Jordan Waters and Jaquez Moore. The two have completely different skill sets, forcing defenses to stay alert to who’s on the field or pay the consequences.

The passing game is less of a threat, but that’s just because they don’t pass if they don’t have to. There are two standout targets in the passing game: wide receivers Jalon Calhoun and Jordan Moore. They are number one and two on the team in catches, yards, and touchdowns, and by a pretty wide margin.

The real key to this offense is star quarterback Riley Leonard, but the question is will he play? If he does play, how effective will he be?

Riley Leonard suffered a high ankle sprain in the Blue Devils’ loss to Notre Dame. The injury kept him out of their next contest against NC State and he was listed as doubtful against Florida State, but ended up starting against them until he reaggravated the ankle in the third quarter. With Leonard on the field, Duke has been effective in nearly everything they attempt on offense. Without Leonard, Duke has looked anemic. Leonard, who is still a game-time decision, could be one that could completely sway the outcome of the game.

Louisville has some injuries of its own coming off of their bye week. Running back Jawhar Jordan is still day-to-day with a hamstring injury that kept him from competing against Pittsburgh; cornerback Jarvis Brownlee is questionable with an injury suffered against Pittsburgh, and guard Renato Brown—who slipped and fell during warm-ups for Pittsburgh—now needs season-ending surgery. This game could very likely come down to who’s healthier, or better yet who’s less unhealthy, as late-season games often do.

This is going to be a close, ugly tightly contested game whether Leonard plays or not. If he does play, the Cards need to play a clean game to come away with a win. If he doesn’t play, it becomes much easier but it’s still not guaranteed.

It’s hard to say what the outcome will be, but coming off of a bye and a humiliating loss, I believe head coach Jeff Brohm will have this team ready to play and keep their ACC dreams alive.

File Photo // Tate Luckey, The Louisville Cardinal