By Dalton Ray–
After losing their top three contributors, Louisville men’s basketball enters the 2016-2017 season with a lot of questions.
Trey Lewis, Damion Lee and Chinanu Onuaku won’t be easy to replace. Donovan Mitchell, Deng Adel and Mangok Mathiang are replacing these players in the starting lineup. Returning starters are Quentin Snider and Jaylen Johnson.
The Cardinals bring back 50 percent of their points, 58 percent of rebounds, 56 percent of assists, 55 percent of blocks, 54 percent of steals and 42 percent of made 3-pointers. Pitino said this team could match the pace of his 1996 Kentucky team. One of the best teams the NCAA in the past 30 years, the Wildcats played at a fast, up-and-down pace with pressing defense and used a large part of their bench.
Leading this team is homegrown talent: Snider. A calm point guard, Snider is the perfect point for Pitino. Through two years, his numbers aren’t far off from former Cardinal Peyton Siva. Siva edges Snider in points and rebounds, but Snider has more 3-pointers and minutes played. While Siva dished out more assists, Siva committed more turnovers. Snider is a very careful ballhandler, with a 2:1 career assist-to-turnover ratio.
Pitino doesn’t have another true point guard behind Snider. Transfer Tony Hicks is a scoring guard that could potentially bog down the offense when he runs the point. It took former Cardinal Chris Jones over a year to adjust to Pitino’s system and buy into ball movement, and he was still a gun. Hicks has to grasp this idea quickly, or else the Cards will have issues.
Hicks should provide scoring for Pitino as a sixth man. A consistent scorer off the bench would have helped U of L last year, and it seems they have it this season. Outside of Snider and Hicks, Ryan McMahon is the next guard in line. McMahon is undersized but is a threat from deep. If he proves to be dependable from behind the arc, McMahon can get some minutes.
Experts are expecting a big year out of shooting guard Mitchell. Already shown his talents of being an aggressive slasher, Mitchell’s next progression is knocking down the jump shot consistently. Mitchell must be able to score away from the basket.
Rounding out the backcourt are walk-ons David Levitch, Jay Henderson and Tyler Sharpe. If Snider, Hicks, Mitchell or McMahon get in foul trouble, one of the walk-ons should get the nod.
Thr front court is definitely the team’s strength. Leading the charge for the forwards is Adel. Last season, Adel’s minutes were limited due to injury and playing behind Lee. This year, Adel is expected to have a breakout year and is a first-round draft pick, according to some outlets. A long and lanky wing, Adel is able to guard multiple positions and is a well-rounded offensive player.
Behind Adel is McDonald’s All-American, VJ King. At 6-foot-7, King is the size and has the ability for the three. With excellent body control while driving the lane, King has a good mid-range jump shot. Adel and King could hit the court together this year and give teams headaches.
Louisville has some options in the power forward spot. Johnson started 22 games last season, but averaged five points and slightly over three rebounds. Johnson has yet to develop much over his two years, maintaining similar stats over two years.
Sophomore Ray Spalding is right on Johnson’s tail. Spalding, another Louisville product, has a much higher ceiling than Johnson and is drawing attention from NBA scouts. As a true freshman, Spalding played fewer minutes than Johnson, but scored 13 more points, grabbed 21 more rebounds and shot eight percentage points higher.
Mathiang and Anas Mahmoud can play both the power forward and center positions. Mathiang, a team captain, is a redshirt senior and the team’s defensive anchor. Not known as an offensive player, Mathiang is considered the glue of the team.
Mahmoud has the height of a center, but his weight creates a disadvantage. An agile seven-footer, Mahmoud is great around the rim with the ball in his hands. Mahmoud showed his potential against Georgia Tech when he scored 15 points, but that was his lone flash in the pan last season.
Matz Stockman is Pitino’s other option at center. A huge frame, 7-foot and 240 lbs., Stockman needs to play with more confidence. His size creates match-up problems but Stockman has a habit of keeping the ball low after rebounding, which allows defenders to knock the ball away. Entering his junior year, Stockman has the chance to show he can play as the center.
Louisville’s biggest issue comes at center position. The Cardinals must get solid rim protection from the spot or U of L will struggle against the better teams they play. They won’t need much scoring from the five spot but having an aggressive rebounder that can finish around the rim will pay off greatly for U of L.
Photo by Nancy Hanner / The Louisville Cardinal
