By Dalton Ray–

Louisville has been a dark-horse pick to crash the College Football Playoffs this offseason. Writers and analysts across the country are falling in love with quarterback Lamar Jackson. Add this to a Bobby Petrino coached team, big time players returning on defense and being in a power-five conference, and it’s easy to become infatuated with the Cardinals on paper.

But don’t buy the hype.

This doesn’t mean Louisville won’t do well this year. A “show me first” mentality should be taken before running away with expectations.
Louisville is a second tier football program in the ACC and national ranks until they beat the top dogs. Over the past two years, U of L’s wins have come against teams with a combined record of 87-122. Only five of the 17 wins have been against teams with a winning record. The Cardinals won’t get any respect until they can win against proven competition.

Sophomore slump

The largest piece of burning coal in the Louisville football hype-train is Jackson. The dazzling playmaker erased his entire season of inconsistent play with two big games at the end of the year. Without Jackson, Louisville would be considered a middle-of-the-pack team in the ACC.

Jackson added weight, gained playbook knowledge and became more of a leader in his first offseason with the Cardinals. All of that is great, but sophomore slumps are real. Once opponents get enough film to see what players don’t do well, what they don’t like and what schemes didn’t work, things become much harder.

Staying at the same level or increasing isn’t impossible but it’s hard to do. With the expectations building around Jackson, he simply might be unable to please everyone. Jackson is becoming more of a myth than a player at this point.

Also, what happens if Jackson doesn’t perform well? Or even more likely, what happens if Jackson gets hurt?

Offensive line

There’s no doubt the most suspect part of last year’s team was the offensive line. There were 11 different starters from last year, which offensive line coach Chris Klenakis took as a positive that his unit had enough players to confidently give a nod to. But from a more realistic standpoint, the constant shuffle alludes to an inability for the position group.

Louisville wasn’t able to run the ball last year. Of the 2,223 yards gained on the ground in 2015, Jackson accounted for 960 of them (43 percent). Most of his yards came from freelancing after a play broke down. Petrino couldn’t even play his best passing quarterback, Kyle Bolin, because of how bad the line was.

The o-line allowed 44 sacks, second worst in the nation. Louisville ranked 122 out of 127 teams in opponent tackles-for-loss allowed. Between sacks and tackles for loss, U of L lost 741 yards in their 13 games.

The line will be much improved from last season but that’s not saying much. If the line can step up their performance, Louisville should be able to compete with nearly anyone.

Grantham’s history

When Todd Grantham came to Louisville, Georgia fans rejoiced. Grantham, an NFL assistant coach from 1999-2009, coached UGA’s defense from 2010-2013. Implementing a new system can be tricky and usually results come in year two. In 2011, Georgia ranked fifth in the nation in total defense. Their run defense placed No. 11 and his scoring defense came in at No. 23.

By his final season in 2013, Grantham’s ‘dawgs lost their bite. UGA tumbled all the way to no. 45 in the nation in total defense, allowing 375 yards per game. Charlie Strong’s Louisville defense led the nation with 251 yards per game. The biggest fall off came in scoring defense where Georgia fell to No. 79, letting up 29 points per game.

Where was Strong’s defense? Number two in the nation, 12.2 points per game.

In year one at Louisville, Grantham’s defense ranked in the top ten in both total and rush defense. In year two, U of L dropped from sixth-ranked in the nation to No. 18 in total defense and from tenth-ranked to No. 14 in rush defense. Scoring defense had the biggest fall going from No. 24 to No. 39 in the nation.

The defense has been able to created 56 turnovers in two years. On top of that, Grantham has more than enough pieces in place to prevent slipping this season.

No signature wins in Petrino’s second era

As stated before, there really hasn’t been that “big win” in Petrino’s second time around.

Look back to this tenure for Petrino. The three best wins are against mediocre teams at best. Petrino has had opportunities to land a big win in his first two years back but has only beat up on teams with losing records. And it’s not like Petrino hasn’t had talent to win these games, like how he left the program in 2007. 13 former U of L players have entered in the NFL in the past two years.

Louisville has had their chances to take home big wins over the past three years and they haven’t taken advantage of the opportunities. For the sake of the preseason hype, if the Cardinals miss out on a big win this year, maybe all they will ever be in Petrino’s second tenure is hype.

Photo by Wade Morgen / The Louisville Cardinal