By Josh Abner

With just four days left before the 130th running of theKentucky Derby, Louisville is basking in its annual moment in thesun. Thunder has come and gone, marathons have been run and logged,and the Great Steamboat Race, the Pegasus Parade and the KentuckyOaks are still ahead on this week’s docket. One loomingquestion remains however: have you found this year’s Derbywinner?

Lest we forget, Louisville’s two-week revelry still orbitsthe first Saturday in May. Enjoy the Balloon Glow and the ChowWagon, but don’t lose sight of the fact that it’s allin celebration of this country’s oldest continuously heldsporting event. And if we’re talking about horse racing, youcan’t avoid trying to pick the Derby winner.

Handicapping is the art of evaluating a horse’s pastperformances to determine the outcome of a race. While much hasbeen made of the decline of horse racing over years, it’sstill serious business. More than $20 million was bet at ChurchillDowns last year on Derby day and more than $87 million was bet onthe Derby itself worldwide, both records.

While good handicapping can play a major role in your success inmost races, Courier-Journal handicapper Rick Cushing says hisskills mean much less when it comes to picking a Derby winner.

“I think Derby transcends handicapping,” saidCushing. “I’ve been picking for the Courier for 12 or13 years and I haven’t picked a winner since 1989 with SundaySilence.”

What makes the Derby so different? Cushing said many variablescome into play.

“There are just so many unknown factors with the distancebeing the biggest,” he said. “None of these horses haverun a mile and a fourth before. You’ve also got horses comingfrom across the country that haven’t run against each otherin most cases. It’s really a guessing game.”

Another major factor: The Kentucky Derby is the only race in thecountry that lets up to 20 horses run in the race. Most races allowno more than 12 to 14 horses run in a given race.

So many unknowns have led to some unorthodox picking tendenciesover the years. Some bettors, like junior sports administrationmajor Jordan Gagel, have no set ways.

“Honestly, I don’t have a method, but I never pickthe favorite,’ said Gagel. It never seems to pay off.”Gagel picked 2003 winner Funny Cide.

Churchill Downs Publicity Manager Lane Gold agrees withGagel’s assessment. “The Derby’s a race thatfavorites don’t win often,” he said.

Recent history supports Gagel and Gold’s claim. The lastDerby favorite to win the run for the roses was 2000 winnerFusaichi Pegasus. Before that, you have to go all the way back to1979 winner Spectacular Bid.

Others forego handicapping altogether and choose using othermeasures. One of the more common methods of choosing a Derbyhopeful is liking a horse’s name.

“I go by the name,” said sophomore biology majorBrad Brasher. “I look for a funny name, something that makesme laugh.”

Some, like sophomore biochemistry major Jay Stallons, take theidea even farther.

“I’ll tell you what I look for in a name, anythingthat has do with a vice.,” said Stallons. Don’t go foranything that sounds wholesome. If it’s got hookers or boozein it, I’m betting.”

Gagel said he attempts to gain value from each of his picks.”I try and look for a horse with odds of around 8-1 to 12-1.It actually pays to bet those and you’ve got a real chance.Plus, they usually have a good jockey.”

Gold said that for beginners a quick way to get a good ideaabout a horse is to look at its Beyer speed figures in previousraces.

“For someone who’s a novice, Beyer figures are areal good way to get an accurate look at a horse,” saidGold.

No matter what your style, luck will always play an importantrole when it comes to the Derby run.

“It’s all about who gets the hole and who’sfeeling good that day,” said Cushing. “In this big afield without a standout, the lucky horse is going to win. I thinkthere are eight or 10 horses this year that could win this thing ifthey get the lucky trip.”

Gold said that while novices may hit big on Derby day, but thatit still doesn’t hurt to do your homework.

“Someone like me who studies these horses every day, youcan get so wrapped up in the numbers. Someone who comes in andpicks a name, they may get lucky and hit a winner. But itdoesn’t hurt to do a little research first.”