By Derek DeBurger
Louisville will face the Florida State Seminoles as they round the final stretch of the season.
Saturday’s matchup was supposed to mark some alleviation in the team’s conference schedule, but in recent weeks Florida State has hit another gear. The Seminoles are 6-3 in ACC play after going 6-5 in non-conference play.
Regardless of how hot FSU might be, they were always going to have the same DNA that head coach Leonard Hamilton has spent decades cultivating: very long and very athletic.
This DNA translates into a strong defense that uses their hands as weapons. FSU ranks 37th in defensive efficiency on KenPom, grabbing 9.3 steals per game and four blocks per game. The biggest issue for the Seminoles is that, because they run such a fast-paced offense, they’re forced to defend such a high number of possessions in a game. As a result, FSU allows opponents to score 73.4 points a game. Running-and-gunning is Louisville’s strength, and if they can hold steady on defense they will have enough chances to put some pressure on the Seminoles.
The problem is that Louisville doesn’t have a strong defensive identity, leading to a lack of understanding from the players of how they should defend which lets opponents score a bulk of points. The formula for the Cards winning a game quite literally includes hoping the other team simply misses shots that they should make. That is not a sustainable style of play, even against a team as average offensively as FSU is.
I could talk more about how the Seminoles score 76.6 points a game, or how the leading scorer for the Seminoles—Jamir Watkins—only scores 13.9 points a game but does so on 62.9% shooting, but none of it matters. No matter how good or bad a team’s offense is, Louisville’s defense makes them look better.
The game is at the KFC Yum! Center, so the Cards should have the advantage, and I hope it’s close, but I don’t expect them to come away with the win.
