By Derek DeBurger
On Saturday, the No. 13 Louisville Cardinals will face off against the Virginia Tech Hokies in what is becoming one of the most sneakily important games of the college football season.
The Cards and the Hokies are both sitting at one loss in ACC play, and the winner of this matchup will be in the driver’s seat to compete in the ACC title game.
The Hokies pose a similar threat to the Cards: stout defense with an offense that tries to keep up.
Pass rush opponents
Tech will pose the best pass rush the Cards will face all year: they are currently tied for the fourth-most team sacks in the entire country, with 30 sacks after eight games. The Hokies also have the leader in sacks and tackles-for-loss in the ACC in defensive end Antwuan Powell-Ryland. Tech’s secondary has not been as good as the front seven, only intercepting four passes while allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 60% of passes. The relentless pass rush more than makes up for this.
While the pass rush has been All-Conference for the Hokies, their run defense has been far less threatening.
Tech has given up 200 or more rushing yards in four games this season earning them the ranking of 127th best run defense by Pro Football Focus. It’s been on the upswing, however. They gave up a total of zero team rushing yards to Syracuse in their last game and 35 team rushing yards to Wake Forest the time before that.
It should be noted that yards lost on sacks count towards team rushing yards, so these numbers might be slightly misleading, but there is improvement nevertheless.
An offense scheme we’ve seen before
The Hokies’ offense is much like their run defense this year, in that they too have been on the upswing. Despite the improvements, Tech is mainly a “ground-and-pound” offense due to their inability to consistently attack through the air. Louisville is going to see something very similar to how Duke’s offense was, and if the Cards can successfully make them one-dimensional then it should be smooth sailing. Because of the limitations of the Hokies offense, they’ve really leaned into it and just tried to play keep away while limiting the opposing offensive possessions.
Some analysis
This is going to be a much tougher matchup than originally thought. The Hokies are 3-1 in their last four games, and they’ve won those three in dominant fashion.
There are a few keys for the Cardinals if they want to come away with a win in this one: first, the Cards have to run the ball well. Running back Jawhar Jordan is one of the best backs in the country and is coming off the best performance of his career. Teams are going to start keying in on him and stacking the box. Louisville needs to continue to run well and pick up chunk yards on the ground despite the extra attention defenses will give.
Second, the Cards need to take advantage of possessions when they get them. The Hokies will try to limit possessions and make the game as low-scoring as possible, the Cards need to score when they get the ball and try not to turn it over. Field goals are welcome in a game like this — points are points.
Finally, the Card will need to take away the Hokies running game and make them pass-happy. This is going to be a more holistic approach, Louisville will need to show up on offense and defense to put the pressure on quarterback Kyron Drones and the receiving corps.
I’m expecting the Cards to win this one to inch closer to their first-ever ACC championship appearance.
Photo Courtesy // Taris Smith, U of L Athletics
