By Nathan Gardner–

Feb. 18, 2006. That is the date of the last Syracuse victory over the Louisville Cardinals. Come February 13, that will be five years, 11 months and 24 days. Louisville has beaten the Orangemen seven straight times since that defeat. On Feb. 13, the Cardinals will attempt to extend the streak to eight, but with Syracuse’s success this season, it’s easy to be skeptical of the Cards pulling out a “W” next week.
However, if we remember, the feeling was much the same when a No. 1 ranked Syracuse team marched into Freedom Hall on March 6, 2010 and was upset by a Louisville team that played a fairytale game in their last ever contest in the historic building. Part of this magical victory was attributed to Kyle Kuric’s breakout performance posting 22 points on four three-pointers.

Notre Dame has already proven that Syracuse isn’t perfect this year but beating them will be a tall task for the Cardinals. Here’s a breakdown of how the two teams match up and what Louisville has to do if they are going to continue their reign over the Orangemen.

Kyle Kuric breakout 22-point performance in 2010 helped earn the Cardinal's a victory over No. 1 Syracuse.

The Good:

Jim Boeheim plays a 2-3 zone — always. Rick Pitino has utilized the three point line more than any other coach since its introduction. For a three point shooting team, there’s no more beautiful sight than a 2-3 zone. Historically, Louisville has shot the three very well against Syracuse. Over the seven game win streak, the Cardinals have averaged 9.6 three-pointers per game against Syracuse. The KFC Yum! Center has been good to the Cards this season; Louisville has a 13-2 home record with an average margin of victory of 13.4 points. Louisville is No. 2 in the Big East in rebounding, while Syracuse is ranked 12th. Louisville has a huge mental advantage over Syracuse; with seven straight losses, Syracuse has a massive monkey on their back, and although they are currently ranked in the top five nationally, the domination Louisville has shown is definitely looming in their minds.

The Bad:

Syracuse is good — very good. They lead the Big East in scoring, scoring margin (+17.0), field goal percentage, blocked shots, steals, turnover margin (-7.17) and assist/turnover ratio (1.5:1). They have a road record of 5-1 this season. Louisville averages nearly 15 turnovers per game. Louisville also has a lower scoring average than the Orangemen and a higher points-allowed average. The Cards are having an off year behind the three-point line; they are averaging just 5.9 three-point shots per game this season. Injuries have also plagued Louisville this year. With major contributors such as Mike Marra, Rakeem Buckles and Stephan Van Treese on the disabled list, more pressure has been placed on other players to step up and deliver solid performances every game.

Although this may seem like Syracuse’s golden opportunity to end the streak, Louisville can continue their domination if they can take advantage of the Orangemen’s weaknesses. As mentioned before, the 2-3 is perfect for a three-point shooting team. So far this season, Louisville’s best performance from behind the arch consists of nine made three’s, and it will take an effort at least that good to defeat Syracuse. Kyle Kuric will have to have a good game, and after the win against Pittsburgh, we all know he’s capable of going off. He’ll certainly have to contribute a handful of threes, but with Syracuse’s zone defending the baseline so heavily, he may have to step out of his “corner” to get the job done.

As we’ve seen before, Louisville can sometimes be a little reckless with the rock. If they get sloppy against Syracuse, they’ll receive their first loss to the team since 2006. Louisville is notorious for taking low percentage shots with rebounders absent under the rim. Notre Dame beat the Orangemen with only seven second chance points. If Louisville executes patience and big men Gorgui Dieng and Chane Behanan crash the offensive boards, the Cardinals will have an opportunity to post some extra points against the fifth worst rebounding defense in the conference. Russ Smith will be a detrimental part of this equation. He can be explosive, but he can also be careless with his shot selection. He must be aware of his teammates and only take shots when rebounders are present.

In Notre Dame’s victory over Syracuse this season, they managed to score 15 points off turnovers. Syracuse rarely turns the ball over, but when it happens, the Cardinals must capitalize.

The fans will also play a part in a Louisville victory. The KFC Yum! Center can be one of the toughest places to play in in the country, and Cards’ fans will have to show up in full force to ensure a victory.
Louisville will extend its win streak over Syracuse to eight on Feb. 13, but they must be patient, crash the offensive boards and take advantage of rare Syracuse turnovers in order to secure a victory.

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