By Derek DeBurger
What has been an under-the-radar game more often than not is now a marquee matchup between Louisville and the Virginia Cavaliers.
Here to give his take on the game for the second year in a row is Xander Tilock, the sports editor of The Cavalier Daily.
I don’t need to remind you that Virginia just got one of their biggest wins in program history Friday. But for those who paid attention to the offseason moves of the Hoos, it’s not too much of a shocker. How big a believer were you before Friday’s game, and how far can Virginia keep climbing this year?
Before the season, I predicted that this team would win at least six games. With a 4-1 record to date, that prediction is aging well. However, I don’t think anyone aside from the team itself could have predicted that the offensive line would go from one of the nation’s worst to one of the nation’s best. This offensive line has only surrendered three sacks in five games—and that’s without their top left tackle, and their top two right tackles, and they had to start a backup guard against Florida State. Considering that this team has one of the highest-scoring offenses in all of college football without some of its top linemen, the ceiling is very high. Virginia has a 43 percent chance of reaching the ACC Championship game, and if the Cavaliers can find a way to beat Louisville, the rest of the schedule is very manageable. Nine or 10 wins is not impossible for this team.
Following the big win, the Cavaliers are ranked for the first time since 2019. How do you think Tony Elliott will handle being the hunted for the first time as a head coach?
I don’t believe Virginia feels it has a target on its back this week. Inside the locker room, this game is about Perris Jones more than it is about protecting that national ranking. Jones, a graduate running back in 2023, suffered a brutal career-ending injury at Louisville the last time the Cavaliers made the trip to Kentucky. For seniors like left tackle McKale Boley and running back Xavier Brown, they are looking to avenge their brother. I would not be surprised if Jones is the subject of Elliott’s message to his team this week. Virginia is also aware of the fact that the previous two matchups with Louisville were one-possession losses. This one is personal.
As of writing these questions, Louisville is the favorite over the Cavs. But the past two years the Cards needed timely no-calls on defensive pass interferences to come away victorious. From your perspective, do you think those previous meetings were more about Virginia knocking on the door but not breaking through, or were Jeff Brohm and company taking a week off?
It is absolutely about Virginia’s previous inability to break through—and now, it can break through. That has been the theme of the Cavaliers’ season thus far. All of the previously chronic issues such as poor quarterback play, a shoddy offensive line, a defense that failed to make timely big plays and an inconsistent running game have been remedied through the transfer portal. I do think it is fair for Louisville to be a home favorite—I had the Cardinals ranked in my weekly poll—but they have not seen a Cavaliers team this polished in years.
The Cavs offense has been lights out this year. On the flip side, when fully healthy, Louisville’s defense has been amazing. That matchup will be must-watch television, but do you think that battle or the one between Virginia’s defense and Louisville’s offense will have a bigger impact on the winning team?
This game will come down to Virginia’s defense versus Louisville’s offense. NC State provided the blueprint of how to beat the Cavaliers—move the line of scrimmage and the pocket and displace defenders. Virginia’s defensive backs have been prone to surrendering passing plays of 40-plus yards, so generating those explosive plays is the key to victory. The Cardinals must do that, or else Virginia’s defense will eventually come up with clutch turnovers like it did against Florida State.
Is there anything you want to mention that I didn’t ask about?
This is essentially a playoff type of game. The loser will fall behind Georgia Tech and Miami, but the winner will remain firmly in the lead to make an ACC Championship game appearance. This game is incredibly important for both teams.
I will also add that Virginia’s offense has been spectacular. Virginia’s offense is fifth nationally in total yards. Entering week four, the Cavaliers were the only team in the country to have 10-plus players with over 100 all-purpose yards. With the dozens of transfer additions—most of whom are graduate students—this is a brand new Virginia team that is capable of going punch-for-punch with the ACC’s best. This should be a fantastic game.
Finally, how does this game go? Who wins and what’s your score prediction?
This is one of the best ACC games of the weekend, and I would not be surprised to see it go either way. However, given that Virginia has significantly more experience in highly difficult games this year—versus the Seminoles and on the road against the Wolfpack—I’ll take the Cavaliers by a score of 31-28.
Photo by Vinny Porco
