By Tyler Bright
The Louisville Cardinals are coming off an emotional upset win over the Clemson Tigers in Death Valley. The win marked Louisville’s first against the Tigers in program history and moved their record to 6-3 overall and 4-2 in the ACC.
While some questioned the Cardinals’ chances of returning to the ACC Championship after their 45-52 loss to Miami, a narrow path to Charlotte remains, keeping their hopes for back-to-back appearances alive.
Here’s how the top of the ACC standings stack up as of this week:
- Miami Hurricanes: 9-0 (5-0)
- SMU Mustangs: 8-1 (5-0)
- Clemson Tigers: 6-2 (5-1)
- Pittsburgh Panthers: 7-1 (3-1)
- Louisville Cardinals: 6-3 (4-2)
Here’s what needs to fall into place for the Cards to lock in a trip to Charlotte: First, they’ll need either Miami or SMU to lose their remaining games—a tall task, as Miami still has matchups with Georgia Tech, Wake Forest and Syracuse, while SMU faces Boston College, Virginia and California.
Second, Clemson must drop a game to either Virginia Tech or Pittsburgh, giving Louisville the head-to-head tiebreaker. Finally, the Cards must win in their conference matchups against Stanford and Pittsburgh.
While much of this is beyond Louisville’s control, their path to the ACC Championship remains open—if just barely.
Playoff or bust?
Many may wonder—if Louisville’s shot at the ACC Championship seems far-fetched, what are the chances they could make the College Football Playoff under its new 12-team format? It’s an interesting proposition that sees five ACC teams included in the first edition of the College Football Playoff Selection Committee rankings with Miami (No. 4), SMU (No. 13), Pitt (No. 18), Louisville (No. 22) and Clemson (No. 23).
The playoff format grants automatic bids to the five highest rated conference champions which will likely shape up to be the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC, along with the highest-ranked Group-of-Five conference champion. The four highest rated conference champions receive a first-round bye along with an automatic bid.
The remaining eight spots are at-large bids, awarded to the top-ranked teams across college football regardless of conference affiliation. This means that, based on the initial rankings, Miami would be the presumed ACC champion and receive a first-round bye, while SMU, ranked 13th, would just miss the cut as the first team out.
Time will tell how this plays out for the Cardinals, who stand out as the only team with three losses in the season’s first playoff poll. Since the College Football Playoff began in 2014, every season has seen at least one team with three losses finish in the top 12 of the final rankings—except for last year, 2023, which was the sole exception.
It’s also worth noting that most of these three-loss teams in the rankings picked up their third loss during the conference championship game. That said, the path is niche but anything is possible. Louisville not only needs to wins out, but they need to look convincing and get some help from the teams ahead of them in the rankings.
Following their bye week, the Cardinals will head cross-country to face the Stanford Cardinal at Stanford Stadium in Palo Alto, California. The game kicks off at 3:30 p.m. EST Nov. 16 on the ACC Network.
Photo by Vinny Porco